Hermes Labs

Research document

Methodology audit

A source record supporting Project Fiction. Read the original account alongside its scope, dates, and limitations.

Research status
exploratory
Updated
In this record

Scientific record

Scope: Audit of the supplied handover and repository framing against baseline v0.1. The older protocol, data, feature definitions, and results were not supplied, so this is not an audit of executed work.

IssueCurrent material · riskRequired responseState
OntologyA binary construction-versus-retrieval framing would misclassify a component as an opposite.Adopt the handover's reuse-versus-transformation contrast; retain effortful retrieval comparisons.Correction adopted; measurement unresolved.
Event validityA stage model does not prove an observable discrete event.Test dimensions, windows, and event feasibility before training a detector.Unresolved.
Information controlIdentical prompts do not equal identical prior knowledge or unchanged internal state.Define external access; record preparation/exposure, permissible derivation, and knowledge limits.Unresolved.
Ground truthTelemetry-selected labels may recapitulate the same features in a classifier.Separate recruitment/selection, process evidence, product ratings, and feature extraction; record selection bias.Independence required; rubric unresolved.
Human judgmentsAgreement, self-reported origin, and Aha are not sufficient validity evidence.Check rater evidence access, reliability, rubric validity, and uncertain cases; do not force binary certainty.Unresolved.
Novelty/actionabilityOriginal wording, semantic distance, or plausible use may stand in for innovation.Separate product criteria and process claims; include recalled-original and superficial-novelty cases.Unresolved.
ConfoundsLoad, difficulty, hesitation, uncertainty, retrieval, identity, domain, prompt, and length can predict labels.Controlled contrasts, nuisance-only baselines, feature ablations, and independent outcomes.Required; exact controls proposed.
Domain/modalityHandover reports older designs conflated domain generalization with modality translation.Domain A/Modality 1 to Domain B/Modality 1 first; translation later under separate design.Separation adopted; modality/domain pair unset.
Leakage and tuningRepeated participants, sessions, items, and test-domain threshold fitting inflate performance.Group-disjoint splits; fit selection/preprocessing on training data; lock the transfer test and threshold.Design requirement; not implemented.
Statistical unitMany clips do not equal many independent participants; a trait predictor is not an event detector.Define prediction and inference units; uncertainty respects clustering and sampling.Unresolved.
Evidence strengthA small pre-test is directional and cannot confirm the thesis.Decision-oriented continuation/failure rules; later powered, frozen confirmation.Adopted distinction; numeric rules unset.
Runtime utilityDetector performance does not demonstrate beneficial assistance.Separate intervention outcome study against matched prompts/baselines.Fallback hypothesis.
Reward utilityAccuracy does not establish a safe or useful reward.Independent tests for noise, gaming, exploitation, proxy optimization, and distribution shift.Unresolved; no production RL justification.

NEW PROPOSAL: Prioritize construct/label feasibility, then a cheap within-domain signal check, then a locked same-modality transfer check if earlier gates survive. See decision-gates.md. This documentary audit supplies no empirical evidence of gate passage or protocol readiness.

Contradictions and limits retained

The initialization scaffold's "no recorded hypotheses" was accurate for the material then available, and is superseded by the handover's current provisional hypotheses. The historical rejection of narrative fine-tuning is imported as reported, without an invented date or experimental result. The process model is compatible with related memory research but its event conclusion is not established. Current conceptual corrections do not retroactively establish valid past labels, protocols, or findings.

2026-10-11 — Fiction-CWR audit extension

NEW PROPOSAL: Existing-model objective synthesis can be studied alongside human feasibility work without adopting an innovation-event label. Fiction-CWR handles finite semantics and constraints directly.

RiskRequired responseCurrent state
“Novel” implies unseen pretrainingRestrict novelty to supplied evidence; retain prior knowledgeScope specified; empirical transfer unresolved
One withheld witness stands for all valid plansEnumerate or certify necessary structure; accept alternativesCertification unimplemented
F reveals target answerSeparate source/target, copy/rename/truncation auditsMatched stimuli unimplemented
F/C difficulty/evidence mismatchExposure, optimum, token burden and fixed-solver manifestsContract specified; residual mismatches unresolved
Grader circularity/defectIndependent transition oracle, alternates, mutants and exhaustive worldsToken QA implemented; actual checks linked in VERIFICATION
Small showcases imply confirmationDirectional pilot; private generators and prospective independent sampleEight specs; powered design unresolved
Mastery selection hides failuresAll-model and qualified reporting; independent P and threshold sensitivityAnalysis specified; no outcomes
Capability branch displaces human workPreserve EXP-0001 and all separate human/runtime/reward gatesComplementary scope documented

No empirical contradiction is resolved by engineering implementation.

2026-10-11 — Workflow attribution audit extension

NEW PROPOSAL: EXP-0003 prepares a separately versioned diagnostic. The earlier unimplemented main-arm private matching gates remain unresolved; new public candidate audits do not retroactively complete them.

RiskRequired responseState
One answer versus equipped agentSame model, stages, full same-trial history, evidence and permissions; cumulative caps and actual usageOffline contract/checks prepared; provider freeze pending
Equal caps imply equal computeCount repeated input/history, outputs and exposed reasoning; record hidden/unavailable usage and costActual equivalence unverified until runs/provider review
Smaller gap means successReport C gain, F change and both gaps; no benefit from F-only deteriorationProspective numeric rules unresolved
Familiar source can be replayedExact/renamed/subsequence/repetition audit; storage constraint and all-solution causal motif certificatesCandidate engineering audits only; human review of analogy/mismatch pending
Four variants imply independent confirmationFinite-panel per-base results; template dependence, no population intervalDirectional scope only
Workflow stages prove human mechanismBehavioral model–workflow attribution onlyConstruct/labels/runtime/reward/transfer remain separate

2026-10-12 — Token audit correction

Observed engineering result: Twelve new tests and raw audit strengthen the old goal-only rejection comparison. A falsely rejected legal non-goal prefix now blocks certification through state/cost/count and precise failure agreement. Current saved candidate solutions pass the stronger audit; no current incorrect model grade is alleged.

Current interpretation / UNRESOLVED: The dependency is available in rules/common one-step evidence, while C's compound trace does not realize it. Target worlds match; source F/C solution counts 2/13 and prefix counts 10/52 expose remaining evidence differences. Matching audit limits claims to a public supported-template development comparison.

Source History & Provenance

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Public record
Selected public export · Scientific maturity is recorded separately.
Repository source
projects/fiction/methodology-audit.md
Website snapshot
2026-10-25 (UTC)
Source date
2026-10-12 (Updated)
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